Insight
Could OPEC producer Venezuela see output fall further?
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Report summary
Venezuela's production was already in a downward trend for the last several years when the US imposed sanctions against its oil exports in late January 2019. These helped accelerate the decline by an additional 350 kb/d from January to July, tightening the supply and demand balance despite weakening oil demand growth, and adding support to prices (see the Oil price outlook for our latest Macro Oils Monthly Update). Read this Insight to find out more on: -Assumptions and the factors driving Venezuela’s production outlook – a key supply risk for the global oil market in 2019 and 2020. -Possible outcomes to the severe uncertainty including further downside risk -Is there upside risk to this OPEC producer’s supply through 2020? -PDVSA could try a different strategy to boost exports in coming months
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