Commodity Market Report

Macro oils short-term outlook: March 2023

07 March 2023

Get this report

$2,000

You can pay by card or invoice

Share link

First name
Last name
Company
Email
Telephone

Country

Message

Consent

Please keep me informed about Wood Mackenzie products, services and events.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

07 March 2023

Macro oils short-term outlook: March 2023

Report summary

We are still on track to see a swift recovery to strong demand growth after the sharp decline in Q4 2022. A big 2.9 million b/d lift is forecast for Q2 2023 and that will go a way toward lifting prices also. This Macro Oils Monthly Update assesses supply as depending on the pace of non-OPEC supply growth, particularly from the Americas; the scale of supply losses from Russia, as the EU oil and product embargos start to have an impact on production; and the direction of OPEC+ policy over the course of this year. Key highlights this month focus on: • Global liquids demand recovers to 2019 levels by Q2 2023, as China demand surges • Guyana revised up as output from Stabroek block remains robust • US commercial crude inventories to turn down later this spring after steady builds • Global GDP forecast for 2023 expected at 2.2% and inflation remains a risk

Global supply: balancing Russia production cuts, non-OPEC growth in the America’s and OPEC+ policy
- Non-OPEC supply: upgrades to Russia, offset by downgrades to Kazakhstan, Canada and UK
- Russia: production has remained resilient till now, but output forecast to fall
- US Lower 48 growth remains steady in the first quarter of 2023
- OPEC supply: no change to OPEC+ strategy leads to stable production
Global demand: Major petrochemical expansions in China underpin global growth this year
- 2023 liquids demand by key markets
- China
- US
- Europe
- Global outlook for 2024
- Risks to the outlook