Macro oils short-term outlook: March 2023

We are still on track to see a swift recovery to strong demand growth after the sharp decline in Q4 2022. A big 2.9 million b/d lift is forecast for Q2 2023 and that will go a way toward lifting prices also. This Macro Oils Monthly Update assesses supply as depending on the pace of non-OPEC supply growth, particularly from the Americas; the scale of supply losses from Russia, as the EU oil and product embargos start to have an impact on production; and the direction of OPEC+ policy over the course of this year. Key highlights this month focus on: • Global liquids demand recovers to 2019 levels by Q2 2023, as China demand surges • Guyana revised up as output from Stabroek block remains robust • US commercial crude inventories to turn down later this spring after steady builds • Global GDP forecast for 2023 expected at 2.2% and inflation remains a risk