Cracking China's oil demand

China's oil demand story is shifting dramatically. After years of robust growth, we expect Chinese consumption to plateau through 2030 as the world's second-largest economy undergoes a fundamental energy transition. Two powerful forces are reshaping the market. While China's electrification drive accelerates—putting unprecedented pressure on transport fuels—the petrochemicals sector continues expanding, though at a more uncertain pace. This creates a complex demand dynamic that will define the next decade. The stakes are significant. Our scenario analysis reveals potential steam cracker outcomes could swing demand by ~600,000 b/d by 2030. Understanding these competing trends is critical for navigating China's evolving oil landscape and its global implications.