Insight
Global oil cost curves and pre-FID breakevens - H1 2026
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Report summary
This insight includes the key charts and conclusions from our most recent global breakeven analysis, which was updated in line with the Global Oil Supply Strategic Planning Outlook – April 2026. Breakeven costs are assigned to every element of our global liquids supply forecast. This gives a comprehensive view of the global cost of supply and forms a crucial part of our long-term oil price forecast.
Table of contents
- Middle East OPEC remains the key source of low-cost oil supply
- Non-OPEC producers increasingly rely on higher-cost supply to offset mature field declines
- Deepwater developments are becoming more competitive, driven by new production in Latin America
- 20 million b/d of new supply will be required by 2035 to offset demand growth and declines from existing fields
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