Global oil cost curves and pre-FID breakevens H2 2023

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This insight includes the key charts and conclusions from our most recent global breakeven analysis, which was updated in line with the Global Oil Supply 10-year investment horizon outlook in November 2023. Breakeven costs are assigned to every element of our global liquids supply forecast. This gives us a comprehensive view of the global cost of supply and forms a crucial part of our long-term oil price forecast.

Table of contents

  • Key Middle Eastern OPEC countries contribute the cheapest sources of supply, dominating the lower end of the global cost curve
  • US Lower 48, Canada and non-OPEC sits on the higher end of the cost curve
  • Deepwater and US Lower 48 onshore will rely on high-cost supply to maintain production
  • Future sources of supply are needed to offset onstream field declines of 18 million b/d over the next 10 years, in order to meet global demand

Tables and charts

This report includes 1 images and tables including:

  • Global liquids capacity in 2033 by breakeven

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global oil cost curves and pre FID breakevens H2 2023 data pack.xlsx

    XLSX 2.09 MB

  • Document

    Global oil cost curves and pre FID breakevens H2 2023 slidepack.pdf

    PDF 1.09 MB