Insight
Libya oil exports resume as blockade lifted
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Report summary
The Libyan National Army (LNA) agreed on 18 September to lift a blockade on oil exports and production which it had imposed in January. This followed a deal between the LNA and elements of the Government of National Accord to ensure fair distribution of oil revenues, a sticking point in previous peace agreements. Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC), which is responsible for production and exports, subsequently commenced exports and production at some ports and fields. The first crude tanker to exit Eastern Libya since mid-January left Hariga on 25 September. Total production is reported to be over 300,000 b/d within weeks of the restart. Given the continued uncertainties, we estimate production could reach 500,000 b/d by the end of the year. Libya returning to sustained levels of pre-blockade production of around 1 million b/d remains an optimistic proposition, with the deal to lift the blockade still fragile.
Table of contents
- Civil war spanning almost 10 years is at the root of Libya’s production woes
- Oil blockade led to 1 million b/d production loss
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The deal: oil exports to resume
- Oil agreement likely to hold into 2021
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How quickly can production ramp up?
- Phased return of crude oil
- Libya deal remains uncertain: risks to production recovery
- Return of Libya oil: Impact on the oil market
- Long road to recovery
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Production Scenarios
- Libya crude oil production
What's included
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