Commodity Market Report
Macro Oils long-term 2021 outlook to 2050
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Report summary
As post-Covid recovery gathers momentum, so does the prospect for an accelerated de-carbonization. In our long-term 2021 outlook, with long-term demand projections revised down substantially, the industry needs to adapt to the challenge of a shifting landscape. However, robust investment is still required on the supply side to offset production declines in order to meet 96 million b/d of global demand in 2050. Key topics include: • When does global demand peak, and how far does it fall by 2050? • The challenge for US Lower 48 as core inventory is exhausted and producers face weaker long-term prices • The increasing reliance on OPEC barrels post-2030 • What is the trajectory of EV adoption and its impact on oil demand?
Table of contents
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Global supply: emphasis on long-term downgrades
- Non-OPEC: near term growth turns to decline in the mid-2030s, which accelerates post-2040
- North America - the key growth region and then the key area for declines in the long term
- US Lower 48: stronger activity recovery is expected in the near-term, but the long-term lower price has a profound impact on supply
- The recovery from 2020 lows has been uneven across the Lower 48
- Above ground challenges: investor scrutiny, operator consolidation and an evolving regulatory landscape
- Rest of North America – NGL and oil sands supply lead growth, minor downgrades overall
- Latin America – deepwater projects underpin strong growth
- Russia and Caspian: medium and long-term supply potential upgraded
- 11 more item(s)...
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Global demand: Global liquids demand reaches a peak by 2034 and turns to structural decline
- Sector demand trends
- Fuel demand from light vehicles
- Risks to global liquids demand
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