Name: Macro Oils long-term outlook H1 2019: Assessing risks and trends to 2040
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 111086
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Author: Wood Mackenzie

Commodity Market Report 31 May 2019

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<h2>Understand what you need to watch in the oil market out to 2040, including:</h2>
<ul>
<li>Why we think US supply will reach a higher peak next decade than previously expected</li>
<li>How the growth of electric vehicles will impact demand</li>
<li>What’s happening in Iran and Venezuela, and how increased political risk will affect supply</li>
<li>How does the market plan to fill the 15 million b/d supply gap we expect by 2025?</li>
</ul>
<h2>What’s changed since our last report?</h2>
<p>We’ve revised the forecast for non-OPEC suppy upward significantly, with the largest revision to the US Lower 48, where tight oil continues to outperform. We’ve also revised up the peak in US Lower 48 crude oil production and made changes to our Brent oil price outlook.</p>
<p>This report comes with charts and datasets, including this one, which forecasts the number of electric vehicle sales by region out to 2040.</p></div>
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            <h3 class="mega push-half--bottom">Rising electric vehicle sales will have an impact on oil demand</h3>
            <div class="gallery">
                <a href="https://www.woodmac.com/siteassets/article-images/report-augment/electric-vehicle-sales-by-region.jpg?w=1800&mode=crop&center=0.5,0.5" class="gallery__trigger js-gallery__trigger-link--scrollable" data-alt="Electric vehicle sales will have an impact oil demand">
                    <svg class="gallery__trigger-icon" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="38" height="38" viewBox="0 0 38 38">
                        <path fill="#FFF" d="M0 0h38v38H0V0z"></path>
                        <title>Expand</title>
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                        <path fill="#0024ff" d="M6.9 6.3c-.3.1-.6.3-.6.7v4.5c0 .4.3.7.6.7.4 0 .7-.3.6-.7v-3l6.7 6.7c.2.2.7.3.9 0 .2-.2.2-.7 0-.9L8.6 7.6h3c.4 0 .7-.3.7-.6 0-.4-.3-.7-.7-.6l-4.7-.1c.1 0 0 0 0 0zm19.4 0c-.4 0-.6.3-.6.7 0 .4.3.6.7.6h3l-6.7 6.7c-.3.2-.3.7 0 .9.2.2.7.2.9 0l6.7-6.7v3c0 .4.3.7.6.7.4 0 .7-.3.6-.7V7c0-.4-.3-.6-.6-.6h-4.6c.1-.1.1-.1 0-.1zM14.7 22.5c-.1 0-.3.1-.4.2l-6.7 6.7v-3c0-.4-.3-.7-.7-.7-.3 0-.6.3-.6.7v4.5c0 .4.3.6.6.6h4.5c.4 0 .7-.3.7-.6 0-.4-.3-.7-.7-.6h-3l6.7-6.7c.2-.2.3-.5.1-.8 0-.2-.3-.3-.5-.3zm8.4 0c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.4-.1.2 0 .5.2.7l6.7 6.7h-3c-.4 0-.7.3-.7.6 0 .4.3.7.7.6H31c.4 0 .6-.3.6-.6v-4.5c0-.4-.3-.7-.7-.7-.3 0-.6.3-.6.7v3l-6.7-6.7c-.1-.1-.3-.2-.5-.2z"></path>
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                    <source data-srcset="https://www.woodmac.com/siteassets/article-images/report-augment/electric-vehicle-sales-by-region.jpg?w=1000&h=600&mode=max" media="(min-width: 960px)">
                    <img class="lazyload" data-src="https://www.woodmac.com/siteassets/article-images/report-augment/electric-vehicle-sales-by-region.jpg?w=800&h=480&mode=max" alt="Electric vehicle sales will have an impact oil demand">
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                <h3 class="mega store_featured_content_extrabold store_font_black">Report summary</h3>
                <p class="mega push--bottom store_landing__body">
                    <div>
Our H1 2019 long-term view to 2040 shows a significant upward revision to non-OPEC supply and to global demand. But the adjustments to non-OPEC outpace those to demand. We have revised the Brent oil price forecast downward by $1 to $5 per barrel for 2021-2028. Longer-term, global liquids demand reaches a plateau in 2035-2040. Fuel efficiency gains and electrification curb demand for transport fuels primarily in the OECD and China, slowing demand growth. This long-term outlook concludes: • US supply reaches a higher peak next decade than previously expected. • Although demand has been adjusted higher, the impact from EVs and fuel efficiency is still large. • The market needs higher-cost conventional production to fill the ‘supply gap’ • OPEC capacity growth is crucial to meet demand, even as political risk ramps up.</div>
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                    <h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Table of contents</h3>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Brent WTI and Cushing Infrastructure
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#f792cb5f-8c97-42e3-8ea2-86afb7a80243" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="f792cb5f-8c97-42e3-8ea2-86afb7a80243" aria-expanded="false">
            Global Supply
        </a>
        <ul id="f792cb5f-8c97-42e3-8ea2-86afb7a80243" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        OPEC: long term capacity growth despite production cuts and Iran sanctions losses
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Capacity additions in Iran deferred as sanctions waivers end
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Iraq main focus for OPEC capacity additions, but risks emerging as Middle East tensions rise
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Venezuela: deteriorating operating conditions and US sanctions take toll of supply
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#1f15beab-6e60-490f-a2dc-345cd6cf978d" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="1f15beab-6e60-490f-a2dc-345cd6cf978d" aria-expanded="false">
            Non-OPEC: near term growth transitions to stability longer term
        </a>
        <ul id="1f15beab-6e60-490f-a2dc-345cd6cf978d" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        US Lower 48 in focus: core inventory continues to be limiting factor
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Long-term cost curve comes down
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        The Majors in the Permian
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#926ea590-cb53-41e7-988d-6b8da89da9cd" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="926ea590-cb53-41e7-988d-6b8da89da9cd" aria-expanded="false">
            Latin America in focus: key non-OPEC growth area outside of North America
        </a>
        <ul id="926ea590-cb53-41e7-988d-6b8da89da9cd" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Brazil – a tale of two basins
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Guyana is the new kid on the block
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Longer term exploration is crucial to maintain growth in the region
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#d9761653-3204-427b-a50f-f60ef19ddf8e" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="d9761653-3204-427b-a50f-f60ef19ddf8e" aria-expanded="false">
            Global demand: heading toward a plateau by the late 2030s
        </a>
        <ul id="d9761653-3204-427b-a50f-f60ef19ddf8e" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Fuel demand from passenger cars: reaching a peak after 2030
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        The fight against air pollution: another force shaping transport fuel demand
    </li>
    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Demand for petrochemical feedstocks
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

</ul>

</div>
                <div class="col small-12 large-4 push--bottom">

<h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Tables and charts</h3>

<p class="push-half--bottom">This report includes the following images and tables:</p>

<ul class="list list--bullets">
        <li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Year-on-year change in supply</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Global liquids demand</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">US Lower 48 crude and condensate production outlook</li>
    </ul>

</div>
                <div class="col small-12 large-4 push--bottom">
                    
<h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom ">What's included</h3>
<p class="push-half--bottom ">This report contains:</p>
<ul class="list"><li class="list__item-icon push-half--bottom"><svg class="list__image-icon" width="13.9" height="17.2" viewBox="0 0 13.9 17.2"><title>Document</title><g fill="#232323"><path d="M13.8 3.5L10.3.2c-.1-.2-.2-.2-.3-.2H1.5C.7 0 0 .7 0 1.5v14.2c0 .8.7 1.5 1.5 1.5h10.9c.8 0 1.5-.7 1.5-1.6V3.8c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3zm-3.4-1.8l1.7 1.6h-1.7V1.7zm2 14.4H1.5c-.2 0-.5-.2-.5-.5V1.5c0-.2.3-.5.5-.5h7.8v2.9c0 .2.2.5.5.5h3.1v11.3c0 .2-.2.4-.5.4z"></path><path d="M11.1 6.3H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5s.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5s-.3-.5-.5-.5zM11.1 12.6H3.7c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.5.5H11c.3 0 .6-.2.6-.5-.1-.3-.3-.5-.5-.5zM3.7 10.4H11c.3 0 .6-.2.5-.5 0-.2-.2-.5-.5-.5H3.6c-.2 0-.5.2-.5.5 0 .2.2.5.6.5z"></path></g></svg>
<p class="font-regular" >Macro Oils long-term outlook H1 2019: Assessing risks and trends to 2040</p>
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