Macro Oils short-term outlook: December 2020

What a difference a month makes. Announcements of effective vaccines has created a sense of relief for 2021. Our forecast for demand is not particularly affected because we have been assuming a viable vaccine would be in place and working its way into the system by end-Q1 2021. However, the reality of these vaccines eases the uncertainty of forecasting during a global pandemic. OPEC+ felt confident enough to shelve its plan for a rollover of its current production restraint and instead allow for a 500,000 b/d rise in January 2021, although that was a compromise outcome. However, risks remain including weak economic performance in those countries struggling to contain the pandemic. Highlights in include: • OECD crude stocks forecast to decline • Oil demand in China to rise above 2019 for Q4 2020 • US Lower 48 crude supply is still expected to decline year-on-year for 2020 and 2021 • OPEC+ output revised upward in wake of 3 December agreement