Macro Oils short-term outlook: December 2020 Report

Commodity Market Report 09 December 2020

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Report summary

What a difference a month makes. Announcements of effective vaccines has created a sense of relief for 2021. Our forecast for demand is not particularly affected because we have been assuming a viable vaccine would be in place and working its way into the system by end-Q1 2021. However, the reality of these vaccines eases the uncertainty of forecasting during a global pandemic. OPEC+ felt confident enough to shelve its plan for a rollover of its current production restraint and instead allow for a 500,000 b/d rise in January 2021, although that was a compromise outcome. However, risks remain including weak economic performance in those countries struggling to contain the pandemic. Highlights in include: • OECD crude stocks forecast to decline • Oil demand in China to rise above 2019 for Q4 2020 • US Lower 48 crude supply is still expected to decline year-on-year for 2020 and 2021 • OPEC+ output revised upward in wake of 3 December agreement

Global supply: OPEC+ agreement will lift output from January 2021, but by less than initially planned
- OPEC+ agree to 500,000 b/d supply increase from January 2021
- US Lower 48: minor revisions to H2 2020 volumes, 2021-22 forecast remains unchanged
- OPEC: upward revisions as Iran and Libya outlooks improve
Global demand: Emerging economies take the lead in the global recovery
- Q4 2020 and Q1 2021: Asia-Pacific, Latin America see signs of recovery
- Q4 2020 Global Liquids Demand
- Q1 2021 Global Liquids Demand
- 2021 and 2022: Global growth path for demand accelerates post-vaccine
- Risks to the outlook