Commodity Market Report
Macro oils short-term outlook: December 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
In an uncertain market, we are making startling few changes to our forecast. Our demand view took into account the persistence of Covid and intermittent lockdowns, minimising the impact of Omricon on our forecast for 2022. The OPEC+ meeting stuck to its planned increase which was our base case. However, geopolitical uncertainty is escalating and Covid remains a critical risk to the global economy, oil demand and the oil market. This Macro Oils short-term outlook highlights include: • Lower 48: DUC inventories draw closer to an end • OPEC+ rollover continues, despite lower prices • Travel restriction analysis in the wake of the Omicron variant • Details on the global release of strategic petroleum reserves
Table of contents
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Global supply: OPEC+ rollover continues, despite lower prices
- Non-OPEC Supply: minor revisions to forecast
- US Lower 48: DUC inventories approach irreducible lows
- OPEC: minimal changes as OPEC+ group stick with existing plan to ease production restraint
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Global demand: Emergence of Omicron variant raises risk to 2022 demand
- 2022: Omicron’s impact focused on Q1, but risks remain
- 2023: Asia-Pacific demand growth accelerates
- Risks to the outlook
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Figure 1: Travel restrictions in the wake of the Omicron Covid-19 variantTable: Risks to the Q4 2021 and annual 2022 global demand outlook
What's included
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