Commodity Market Report
Macro oils short-term outlook: February 2024
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Report summary
During January and into February the oil market has largely held a range of $75 to $81/bbl for Brent. Tensions in the Middle East are ratcheting up and missile strikes continuing with the US attacking Iran-backed militias and those same militias staging attacks on US troops. Despite the military action, the oil price during early February remains around $80/bbl. Highlights of our Monthly Update include: • Q1 2024 fundamentals weigh on price • Disruption to shipping routes via the Red Sea boosts global marine bunker sales • Strong Q4 2023 growth in US Lower 48 drives an upgrade to baseline production • North Sea underperformance results in a forecast downgrade
Table of contents
- Global supply: minor changes to the outlook as market waits for OPEC+ cuts to bite
- Non-OPEC: strong US Lower 48 growth in Q4 2023 drives baseline increase across 2024 and 2025
- US Lower 48 production reaches 11 million b/d for the first time
- Lower 48 annual oil production forecast to grow nearly 270,000 b/d in 2024
- OPEC: output falls as Q1 2024 additional voluntary cuts make an impact
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Global demand: Disruption to shipping routes via the Red Sea, boosts global marine bunker sales
- Liquids demand by key markets
- Global outlook for 2025
- Risks to the outlook
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