Commodity Market Report
Macro oils short-term outlook: November 2024
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Report summary
The oil price continues to be affected by reports of weakening oil demand in China. Our forecast is for China’s oil demand to grow this year and next. The anticipation of Iran’s counterattack after Israel’s missile strikes on 26 October, is another risk factor for oil prices.
Table of contents
- Market outlook
- Global Supply: OPEC+ delay plan to ease cuts by one month as supply ticks up and prices settle lower
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Non-OPEC supply: outlook driven by upgrades to US NGLs, Niger and Canada
- US Lower 48 oil production will grow at 3% annually through 2026
- Lower 48 operators focus on consolidation and efficiency gains continues
- Other non-OPEC supply changes include:
- OPEC: OPEC+ to delay unwinding of cuts by one month to end-2024
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Global demand: Increased trade tariffs could threaten the global manufacturing recovery
- Liquids demand by key markets
- Global outlook for 2025 and 2026
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