Commodity Market Report
Macro Oils short-term outlook: Venezuela crisis, OPEC cuts, demand stability
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Report summary
As expected, oil prices have recovered from their recent low of near $50 per barrel at end 2018. Over the past four weeks, Brent has traded upward toward $62 as the reality of OPEC production cuts became clear and sparked a recovery in price. Along with that was the easing of the deep fears over the holiday period about global economic weakness. Political stand off in Venezuela and the sanctions against Iran, on the other hand, mean world oil supply growth in 2019 will slow down. Supply gains now match the rate of oil demand growth this year, making for a tighter balance.
Table of contents
- Venezuela in focus: US sanctions put squeeze on output
- Will the cutback in heavy barrels affect prices?
- Global supply: growth slows in 2019 due to sanctions and OPEC+ restraint
- OPEC: Uncertainty in Venezuela and expected production restraint drive lower outlook
- Iran: Sanctions take effect though waivers limit impact
- Libya: El Sharara continues to be shut in
- Non-OPEC supply:
- Lower 48 crude outlook
- Steady growth in global demand relies on US and India, but China and Europe play a role too
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