North America Crude Markets short-term outlook: August 2022

Ultra-wide discounts in coastal WTI prices to dated Brent continue to support strong export volumes through July. However, as export volumes hover near all-time highs and ample supply continues to flood the USGC market with continued SPR releases, Houston waterborne loading data may be potentially signalling logistical constraints. Loading volumes in the Houston area for the third month in a row have plateaued near the historic high watermark. Meanwhile, a recent Keystone pipeline incident raised alarms over disrupted Canada-to-US deliveries. This comes at a crucial time, as WCSB egress shows signs of becoming constrained in the coming months. In this report, we assess the potential chokepoints in both Houston waterborne loadings and pipelines out of Western Canada.