How would a delayed energy transition in North America impact the natural gas market?

The future of the natural gas market is deeply intertwined with economic policies and policy priorities, which can be both uncertain and nuanced. Could a win of the US election by former President Donald Trump change the course of decarbonization for the country? How would an extended trade barrier with China and policy incentives to reshore strategic industries impact natural gas demand? Where does gas-fired generation fit to support an ever-changing power market? In this insight, we aim to unpack how a slow-down in energy transition and shifting economic priorities in North America would impact its gas market. In this delayed energy transition (DET) scenario, our market outlook evolves around the assumptions that a change in the US government would lead to reduced funding for decarbonization technologies, continued economic nationalism, and limited infrastructure reforms.