North America Crude Markets short-term outlook: July 2022

June was a wild ride for North American differentials with rapidly steepening backwardation in the Brent prompt versus futures market driving double digit differentials for North Sea Dated to US coastal WTI prices. Further, WCS price discounts to both WTI and Maya widened sharply in May and continued in June despite an apparent lack of logistical constraints. SPR volumes and widening HSFO cracks are weighing on medium/heavy sour crudes in the USGC market with Maya an apparent outlier. In this report, we take a deep dive into current drivers of North American differentials amidst a backdrop of Cushing inventories skirting operational thresholds. Other topics in this report include: • Our outlook on US refinery runs and US product demand amidst record refining margins • An update on how US import/export flows are responding to SPR releases and the US ban on Russian crude • Cushing inventories hover near the operational floor, but are expected to rebound into 2023