Oil demand to 2018: five risks to watch Report

Insight 21 February 2017

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Report summary

In this insight we highlight the five key risks we think could have the most impact on our oil demand forecast. We are forecasting growth of 1.4 million b/d in 2017, driven by gains in the US, alongside sustained growth in China and India, and a recovery in commodity-producing regions. However, we expect global growth to decelerate to 0.9 million b/d in 2018, as Asia slowly loses steam and the downturn in European demand deepens. In 2017, the key downside risks come from China and the US, while India poses an upside risk. On balance, the risk appears weighted slightly to the downside. In 2018, since we are already on the bearish side of market expectations, the risks appear to be weighted to the upside – coming largely from Europe, followed by the Middle East.

Oil demand to 2018: where could we be wrong?
USA slow start to the year: 120,000 b/d downside risk in 2017
China's weak diesel demand: 40,000 b/d downside risk in 2017
India's momentum: 100,000 b/d upside risk in 2017
A stronger Europe: 190,000 b/d upside risk by 2018
Middle East power generation: 60,000 b/d upside risk in 2018

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Global oil demand: Feb 2017 outlook
Indian oil demand
European oil demand (Northwest Europe, Mediterranean, Central and Eastern Europe)
Global oil demand (million b/d): Feb 2017 outlook