Insight
OPEC+ dilemmas ahead of its 26 November meeting
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Report summary
When OPEC+ meets on 26 November, it faces the dilemma of a market with weaker oil prices compared with the highs seen in October. Despite relatively firm current fundamentals, prices began declining in late October on reduced fears in the market of the Israel-Hamas war spilling over into a region wide conflict. On 8 November, and again on 16 November, Brent fell below $80/bbl. This Insight addresses some of the risks and fundamentals as OPEC+ gathers. • Upside supply risks in 2024 • OPEC+ options and our base case view • Downside risk to the demand outlook
Table of contents
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OPEC+ Dilemma: upside supply risks in 2024
- And there is further upside risk to our view:
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OPEC+ Dilemma: downside risk to the demand outlook
- Total OPEC crude production target and adherence assumed
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