Insight
OPEC's options, price impact, US reaction
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
OPEC faces a dilemma: extend the existing production cut agreement and support price, or end the production cuts and watch prices drop. The dilemma lies in the impact of higher prices on short cycle time tight oil production in the US. Higher prices incentivise US tight oil production, which in turn, reduces the efficacy of the production cuts from OPEC. It also risks OPEC losing market share to the US. What to do? We model five OPEC scenarios, assessing the impact of each on oil price, US production, and the global supply-demand balance: Base case – extend the existing production cut agreement for six months; lift production restraint in early 2018 Option 1 – no agreement on 25 May; existing production cuts end in June 2017 Option 2 – deeper cuts in Q3 2017, resume existing production cut into Q4 2017; no production restraint in 2018 Option 3 (most likely) – extend existing production cut agreement through Q1 2018 Option 4 – extend existing production cuts through to end-2018.
Table of contents
- OPEC's options, price impact, US reaction
Tables and charts
No table or charts specified
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Asset Report
North Madura II
The North Madura II Production Sharing Contract (PSC) is situated offshore East Java, 6 kilometres north of Madura Island and adjacent ...
$3,720
Insight
Managing the nitrogen challenge: how Permian gas is reshaping US Gulf Coast LNG
Increasing nitrogen content in LNG feedgas sources creates both challenges and opportunity
$950
Insight
The EU shields its steel
Impact of proposed tariff quota changes
$1,050
