Insight
OPEC's options, price impact, US reaction
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
OPEC faces a dilemma: extend the existing production cut agreement and support price, or end the production cuts and watch prices drop. The dilemma lies in the impact of higher prices on short cycle time tight oil production in the US. Higher prices incentivise US tight oil production, which in turn, reduces the efficacy of the production cuts from OPEC. It also risks OPEC losing market share to the US. What to do? We model five OPEC scenarios, assessing the impact of each on oil price, US production, and the global supply-demand balance: Base case – extend the existing production cut agreement for six months; lift production restraint in early 2018 Option 1 – no agreement on 25 May; existing production cuts end in June 2017 Option 2 – deeper cuts in Q3 2017, resume existing production cut into Q4 2017; no production restraint in 2018 Option 3 (most likely) – extend existing production cut agreement through Q1 2018 Option 4 – extend existing production cuts through to end-2018.
Table of contents
- OPEC's options, price impact, US reaction
Tables and charts
No table or charts specified
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Is natural gas the “Trump” card in the US energy policy deck?
What are the impacts of US federal regulatory and policy changes for the natural gas industry?
$950
Insight
Value-in-use metallurgical coal costs 2025
We generated VIU cost curves across HCC, SCC and PCI, accounting for quality and market.
$5,000
Insight
Breaking down the surge in US LNG capital costs and impact of tariffs
Tariffs could raise US LNG construction costs by 5%, compounding inflation and squeezing project returns across pre-FID developments
$1,050
