Insight

OPEC's options, price impact, US reaction

From

$1,350.00

You can pay by card or invoice

From

$1,350.00

You can pay by card or invoice

Get this Insight as part of a subscription

Enquire about subscriptions

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Further information

Pay by Invoice or Credit Card FAQs

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.
 

Report summary

OPEC faces a dilemma: extend the existing production cut agreement and support price, or end the production cuts and watch prices drop. The dilemma lies in the impact of higher prices on short cycle time tight oil production in the US. Higher prices incentivise US tight oil production, which in turn, reduces the efficacy of the production cuts from OPEC. It also risks OPEC losing market share to the US. What to do? We model five OPEC scenarios, assessing the impact of each on oil price, US production, and the global supply-demand balance: Base case – extend the existing production cut agreement for six months; lift production restraint in early 2018 Option 1 – no agreement on 25 May; existing production cuts end in June 2017 Option 2 – deeper cuts in Q3 2017, resume existing production cut into Q4 2017; no production restraint in 2018 Option 3 (most likely) – extend existing production cut agreement through Q1 2018 Option 4 – extend existing production cuts through to end-2018.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    OPEC's options oil price and US production.pdf

    PDF 897.19 KB

Table of contents

  • OPEC's options, price impact, US reaction

Tables and charts

No table or charts specified

Questions about this report?

  • Europe:
    +44 131 243 4400
  • Americas:
    +1 713 470 1600
  • Asia Pacific:
    +65 6518 0800