Insight
Return of Venezuelan barrels: assessing scenarios for supply and refining
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Report summary
A rapidly evolving landscape in Venezuela has spurred widespread uncertainty across global oil markets entering 2026. The range of possible outcomes remains wide and depends on developments in Venezuela governance, upstream investment, US policy, and various trade discussions. In this Insight report, we detail three distinct scenarios for Venezuelan oil supply. We assess the various market impacts of each scenario, including implications for oil prices, global supply, Venezuelan egress, USGC refining capabilities, and Canadian crude trade.
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What's included
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