Road work ahead: US gasoline demand proceeds cautiously Report

Insight 21 September 2020

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Report summary

Gasoline demand in the United States has experienced an unprecedented recovery in the past four months following the strict lockdowns of April. While demand in the world’s largest gasoline market has gained significant ground in a short period of time, its resurgence has slowed as local and state governments balanced the virus containment effort with the need for economic growth. In addition, broader questions remain around how the pandemic has shifted US consumer behavior and how these factors could shape the growth path for US gasoline beyond 2021. In this insight, we review the following topics: -What drove the extraordinary recovery from April to August 2020? -Are US driving patterns under reconstruction? -Will unemployment further slow gasoline demand’s progress? -Is the recovery in Chinese demand a good proxy for the US in the next few months?

US consumers in the drivers’ seat
Are US driving patterns under reconstruction?
- How did the Q2 stay at home orders affect Vehicle Miles Traveled?
- Have these trends in VMT continued in H2 2020?
- Will unemployment further slow gasoline demand’s progress?
- Is the recovery in Chinese demand a good proxy for US in the next few months?
Road work ahead

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Figure 1: Weekly US Gasoline Demand vs. 2019, H2 February through April 2020
Figure 2: US Gasoline Demand, 2019-2021
Figure 3: US Vehicle Miles Traveled by Month for Urban and Rural Areas, 2020 vs. 2019
Figure 4: Apple Mobility Data for Top 10 US Metropolitan Areas, August vs. February 2020