Russia Refines its Oil Tax Manoeuvre Report

Insight 11 November 2014

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Report summary

Proposed changes to Russia’s crude oil and oil product tax rates will have profound implications for Russia’s refining industry and is changing the balance in how upstream and downstream oil is taxed. The so-called ‘ ’tax manoeuvre” is a key piece of fiscal policy that, for the main part, seeks to ensure continued investment in refineries and ensure that Russian refining remains competitive in the global market through modernisation, without harming upstream production.

Executive Summary
Introduction
- Tax Manoeuvre (Current vs. Proposed)
- Tax Manoeuvre
- Upstream
- Downstream
  - The Impact on Russia’s Refining Industry
    - Crude Netback Calculation
    - Investment by Unit Type (2014-2017)
    - 2017 Net Cash Margin Forecast
    - Net Cash Margin Forecast (Investment vs. No Investment)
    - Hydroskimming Refinery Margins (No Investments)
    - Semi-Complex Refinery (Low Investments)
    - Semi-Complex Refinery (High Investments)
  - Refinery Company Level EBITDA Forecast
    - Company Level Domestic Refinery Assets EBITDA Forecast
  - Downstream Sensitivities
    - Scenario One – High Crude Price Environment
    - Scenario Two – Less Amplified Crude Export Tax Reduction
    - Conclusions