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Russia and Caspian upstream in brief

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03 February 2023

Russia and Caspian upstream in brief

Report summary

The Russia and Caspian upstream in brief provides Wood Mackenzie's expert opinion and analysis of the key events impacting the upstream industry in the region. We draw upon our upstream database and data tools to help deepen our clients' understanding of the region. The report primarily focuses on exploration and appraisal drilling, project developments, production, licensing, fiscal and regulatory changes, geopolitics, and corporate and M&A activity.

Table of contents

  • Global upstream updates: our favourite slides and topics
  • Russia/Ukraine conflict – Wood Mackenzie’s energy sector analysis
  • Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) to add first expansion capacity from 2026
  • Top bids from Kazakhstan’s December auction void as buyers fail to pay in time
  • Gazprom set to export gas to Uzbekistan as part of ‘roadmaps’ with Central Asian partners
  • Russia and Caspian upstream: 2022 in review
  • Wintershall Dea to exit Russia
  • Afghanistan’s Taliban government signs oil production deal with Chinese firm
  • Russia responds to G7 oil price cap
  • Traders exit Rosneft’s Vostok project
  • Kazakhstan announces results of December auction for onshore blocks
  • Gazprom commissions new infrastructure to increase gas exports to China
  • Key Caspian Sea E&A wells kick off in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan
    • Russian Federation upstream: 5 things to look for in 2023
    • Caspian upstream: 5 things to look for in 2023
  • NOVATEK discovers Viktor Girya field in the Russian Arctic
  • How will Gazprom monetise its gas in future?
    • EU ban on Russian oil imports
    • Price cap for Russian oil by the G7, the EU and Australia
  • TotalEnergies takes another step closer to exiting Russia’s upstream
  • Kazakhstan sells 3% of NC KazMunaiGas (NC KMG) shares in domestic IPO
  • Rosneft reports 9M 2022 results
  • RusGazAlliance launches Semakovskoye field in Russia’s Taz Bay
  • TotalEnergies sells its Dunga oil field stake in Kazakhstan and advances large onshore wind deal
  • FID for KEP-1B sub-phase at Kazakhstan’s Karachaganak megaproject
  • Kazakhstan offers 5% of NC KazMunaiGas (NC KMG) shares in domestic IPO
  • Kazakh liquids production hits record high after Kashagan repairs complete
  • Igor Sechin’s keynote speech in Baku highlights Vostok Oil
  • Rosneft confirms start-up of Kharampurskoye gas production
  • Turkmenistan’s state-owned NAPECO takes 5% stake in Dragon Oil’s Cheleken PSC
    • Russia
    • Kazakhstan
  • Technip Energies to make ‘orderly exit’ from Arctic LNG-2 contract with NOVATEK
  • Global Upstream Update – catch up on our favourite slides and topics
  • Russia takes first step towards Sakhalin-1 expropriation from ExxonMobil and partners
  • OPEC+ – including Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan – agrees to 2 million b/d oil cut
  • TotalEnergies and SOCAR install topsides at Azerbaijan’s Absheron Early Production Scheme (EPS) platform
  • Kazakhstan offers 41 onshore blocks in December auction as licensing push continues
  • NC KazMunaiGas reconsolidates Kazakh state’s 16.88% Kashagan megaproject interest
  • Large oil resource upgrade at Rosneft’s giant West Irkinskoye field
  • Gazprom makes commissioning progress at Portovaya LNG plant
  • Nord Stream gas deliveries to Europe suspended indefinitely
  • Mitsui and Mitsubishi keep Sakhalin-2 LNG stakes in Russia, while Shell exits
  • Equinor completes full exit from Russia
  • TotalEnergies to sell its stake in Russia’s Termokarstovoye gas condensate field
  • Kazakh exports at risk again as CPC hit by subsea equipment fault
  • Russian government discloses ambitious plan for Northern Sea Route
  • Kazakh independent CaspiOilGas to go public
  • Kazakh liquids production and CPC exports fall again because of upstream maintenance
  • Gazprom claims that return delivery of Nord Stream turbine is impossible
    • Russia
    • Kazakhstan
  • Gazprom further reduces Nord Stream gas deliveries to Europe
  • Kazakhstan announces results of July auction for onshore blocks
  • Azerbaijan and the EU sign MoU to double Southern Gas Corridor flows
  • BP targets reduced emissions at Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz gas megaproject
  • CPC oil pipeline’s 30-day suspension overturned by Russian court
  • Russia takes first step towards Sakhalin-2 expropriation
  • Kazakh oil exports at risk as Russian court orders CPC terminal to halt operations
  • Rosneft makes giant oil discovery in the Arctic
  • TotalEnergies to exit Kharyaga oil project in Russia
  • Dragon Oil extends offshore Cheleken PSC in Turkmenistan to 2035
  • Sanoat Energetika Guruhi (SEG) makes one of Uzbekistan’s largest-ever oil discoveries
  • Kazakhstan plans domestic IPO for NC KazMunaiGas (NC KMG) by end-2022
  • St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) 2022 – lack of eye-catching deals reflects Russia’s growing isolation
  • KCA Deutag abandons nine onshore drilling rigs in Russia
  • Gazprom reduces gas flows to Europe via Nord Stream
  • Kazakhstan builds decarbonisation momentum with Chevron and Total Eren agreements
  • EU imposes near-total embargo on Russian oil imports
  • Why is the rouble strengthening amid economic malaise in Russia?
  • Kazakh government admits to looming gas market concerns
  • Kashagan enters planned maintenance shutdown for up to 45 days
  • BP’s three-well SWAP exploration campaign comes up dry offshore Azerbaijan
  • Equinor exits all JVs in Russia
  • What next for Russia's upstream?
  • Russia’s retaliatory sanctions and possible implications for the European gas market
  • Ukraine declares force majeure on a transit point for Russian gas
  • Majors confirm scale of multi-billion-dollar Russia charges
  • TotalEnergies records US$4.1 billion impairment largely due to Arctic LNG-2
  • Gazprom cuts off gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria
  • New gas payment scheme proposed by Russia
  • CPC’s Black Sea oil terminal returns to full capacity, enabling Kazakh liquids to rebound
  • Kazakhstan offers record 40 onshore blocks in July auction
  • Vagit Alekperov steps down as LUKOIL CEO
  • BP spuds third and final exploration well on Azerbaijan’s shallow-water SWAP block
  • LUKOIL CEO sanctioned by the UK
  • Oil and Russia's economy - mixed signals
  • Uzbekistan accelerates IPO plans for state-owned Uzbekneftegaz
  • Kazakhstan gauges interest in onshore blocks for future auctions
  • New entrant GL expands onshore portfolio in Azerbaijan
  • Kazakhstan’s liquids output falls amid CPC export disruption
  • Storm damage at CPC terminal in Russia forces Kazakhstan to consider oil export alternatives
  • LUKOIL makes large gas-condensate discovery in Russian sector of Caspian Sea
  • What next for Asia's upstream investments in Russia?
  • Shell announces its complete withdrawal from Russia
  • Regional oil trade in turmoil as buyers shun Russia-sourced volumes
  • The background to international participation in Russia's upstream
  • Presidential decree to stop Majors exit from Russia
  • ExxonMobil to exit Sakhalin-1 in Russia
  • Wintershall Dea responds to Russia/Ukraine conflict
  • BP to exit Rosneft shareholding
  • What next for oil and gas companies present in Russia?
    • Yamal LNG
    • Arctic LNG-2
    • Vysotsk LNG
    • Production
    • Capex
  • Glencore sells its stake in Russneft
  • Rovnag Abdullayev out as head of SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state energy company, after 16 years
  • Shah Deniz ramp-up steals the show as BP Azerbaijan posts 2021 results
  • What risks are there for Russia’s upstream from an escalation of the Ukraine crisis?
  • Russia's upstream fiscal options for the energy transition
  • Kazakhstan reshuffles its energy sector management after recent civil unrest
  • Rosneft and CNPC strengthen cooperation
  • Gazprom and CNPC ink agreement to supply gas to China via Far Eastern route
  • Power of Siberia 2 makes progress
  • Russia and Caspian upstream: 2021 in review
  • Chinese Zhejiang Energy could get 10% in Russian Yakutia LNG project
  • Kazakhstan’s upstream sector takes stock after nationwide unrest
  • Russian NOVATEK inks two LNG supply deals with Chinese companies
  • Uzbekistan commissions long-awaited Gas to Liquids (GTL) plant
  • Rosneft targets net zero by 2050 and outlines strategy out to 2030
  • FEED to begin for Phase Two A at Kazakhstan’s offshore Kashagan megaproject
    • Russian Federation upstream: 5 things to look for in 2022
    • Caspian upstream: 5 things to look for in 2022
  • BP and SOCAR part pre-empt LUKOIL’s US$2.25 billion Shah Deniz deal with PETRONAS
  • Putin visits India for annual summit
  • Gazprom announces Q3 results and YTD production
  • Azerbaijan signs new gas swap deal with Iran and Turkmenistan
  • LUKOIL announces Q3 2021 results
  • Kazakhstan announces results of November auction for onshore blocks
  • Rosneft announces biggest discovery globally of the year so far
    • Useful links
  • Russia advances its low-carbon strategy during COP26
  • Uzbekneftegaz raises US$700 million in its first-ever eurobond issuance
  • KazMunaiGas, Kazakhstan’s NOC, completes unbundling of KazTransGas
  • Russian NOVATEK announces Q3 2021 results
  • Gazprom’s production capacity – how is it shaping up for winter 2021-22?
  • Kazakhstan introduces oil export duty exemption for future offshore developments
  • Uzbekistan introduces new upstream tax and regulatory incentives
  • JKX Oil & Gas announces sale of non-core Russian asset
  • NOVATEK’s transhipment terminal in Murmansk to be ready by end-2022
  • LUKOIL buys PETRONAS’ 15.5% stake in Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz gas-condensate megaproject for US$2.25 billion
  • Russia proposes a more ambitious low-carbon strategy to 2050
  • LUKOIL snaps up 25% stake from BP in Azerbaijan’s SWAP exploration project
  • Rosneft to collaborate with Majors on carbon reduction
  • Turkey contracts spot Shah Deniz gas from Azerbaijan for next three years
  • Meretoyakhaneftegaz JV: Gazpromneft’s second attempt to find a partner
    • A disappointing energy state of play after 20 years of capability building
    • A sparse outlook for upstream investment from international partners
    • A neutral impact on TAPI gas pipeline’s prospects, but chronic contingencies persist
  • EPC contract awarded for Baltic LNG
  • How could Gazprom respond to a tight domestic gas market?
  • Kazakhstan offers 22 onshore blocks in November auction
  • CNPC starts new drilling work at Turkmenistan’s super-giant Galkynysh gas field
  • BP and SOCAR finally spud shallow-water oil exploration well in Azerbaijan
  • BP and SOCAR get ready to launch delayed shallow-water exploration campaign in Azerbaijan
  • Chevron confirms revised start-up guidance for Kazakhstan’sgiantTengiz expansion
  • Russian NOVATEK announces Q2 2021 results
  • SOCAR and NC KazMunaiGas sign decarbonisation MoUs with international players
  • Gazprom looks to produce good results in 2021
  • OPEC+ - including Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan – reveals its oil cuts end game
  • CNPC swaps drilling for Turkmen gas, looks to broader gas push
  • Catch up on our view on Russian LNG to 2030
  • European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will end upstream financing
  • Large mud volcano erupts near Azerbaijan’s Umid gas field in Caspian Sea
  • The miraculous transformation of Russia's Neftegazholding (NNK)
  • Turkmenistan reportedly finishes repaying its initial gas export-backed loans from China
  • Rosneft finds a second partner for the Vostok Oil project
  • Amur gas processing plant (GPP) commissioned
  • Construction begins at new US$860 million onshore gas plant for Kazakhstan’s Kashagan megaproject
    • NOVATEK reaches LNG, decarbonisation and gas chemical agreements
    • Gazpromneft’s deals headlined by Arctic exploration pact with NOVATEK
    • Rosneft took important early practical steps for its Vostok Oil megaproject
    • Other announcements that caught our eye
  • Epsilon Development Company makes its largest discovery so far in Uzbekistan
  • Russia turns its attention to the Arctic Council
  • Can the Caspian upstream sector still compete for capital?
  • Rosneft posts results for Q1 2021
  • Repsol retreats from Russia
  • Gazprom announces 2020 results and looks to a bright future
  • Wintershall Dea reports significant milestone for Turonian gas
  • What next after BP’s giant Shafag Asiman gas-condensate discovery in Azerbaijan?
  • Russian NOVATEK announces Q1 2021 results
  • Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz Phase One gas exports to Turkey suspended as contract extension talks continue
  • Kazakhstan awards eight onshore blocks to domestic investors in second online auction
  • PETRONAS moves closer to Garagol-Deniz first oil at Block 1, offshore Turkmenistan
  • OPEC+ – including Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan – agrees to phased oil output increase in May-July
  • NOVATEK secures another licence for its Arctic LNG-1 project
  • Discovery confirmed at deepwater Shafag Asiman prospect in Azerbaijan
  • Severneftegazprom finds new way to make gas recovery easier
  • Gas price to China via Power of Siberia falls to lowest level so far
  • Karachaganak gas debottlenecking project (KGDBN) launched in Kazakhstan
  • KazMunaiGas keeps control of KazTransGas, despite partial unbundling
  • Kazakhstan evaluates tax and regulatory reforms
  • Russia and Kazakhstan to increase oil production again in April, under latest OPEC+ terms
  • LUKOIL expresses interest in offshore Dostlug project, after landmark Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan MoU
  • High-profile oil discovery announced in Kazakhstan’s Mangistau region
  • Shenergy signs a 15-year SPA with NOVATEK
  • Block Energy achieves first gas sales in Georgia
  • NOVATEK announces 2020 results
  • Rosneft signs investment agreement for Priobskoye North field
  • Uzbekistan advances its ambitious methanol to olefins (MTO) plans
    • Russia
    • Rosneft will put its foot on the gas again
    • NOVATEK and Gazprom will play LNG catch-up
    • Caspian
    • Turkmenistan will grant offshore contract extensions
    • Uzbekistan will hope for a tender embrace from IOCs
    • Taking stock of the region’s upstream sector
  • 2020 - a year to remember for Russian discoveries
  • BP Azerbaijan reports resilient 2020 operating results
  • Nostrum Oil & Gas suffers another major reserve downgrade in Kazakhstan
  • Azerbaijani President announces SOCAR governance shake-up
  • Kazakhstan announces its next auction for onshore acreage
  • Nord Stream 2 under increased pressure as pipelaying resumes
  • Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan sign MoU for previously disputed Caspian Sea field
  • Achim Development starts production at 4A block
    • Listen to our podcast on the recent OPEC+ agreement
  • Rosneft starts 2021 with a discovery in East Siberia
  • Rosneft ends 2020 with discovery of global significance in East Siberia
  • Rosneft steps up M&A activity in Russia at year end
  • NOVATEK and NLMK sign MOU on decarbonisation
  • Kashagan consortium will boost oil output thanks to gas plant deal with KazTransGas
  • OMV Petrom sells its Kazakh assets to local firm
  • Domestic investors dominate Kazakhstan’s first-ever online exploration auction

Tables and charts

This report includes 127 images and tables including:

  • Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) - expansion scenario guidance
  • December 2022 auction - annulled winning bids
  • Central Asia-Centre (CAC) gas pipeline network
  • Afghanistan - Amu Darya basin oil fields
  • G7 oil price cap
  • Location of awarded blocks in west Kazakhstan
  • Existing and proposed gas export routes to China
  • Caspian Sea - Zhenis-1 and SDX-8 wells
  • Viktor Girya field location
  • Company impairments in Russia
  • NC KazMunaiGas upstream and midstream value (NPV10 at January 2023)
  • Semakovskoye field location
  • TotalEnergies - entitlement production in Kazakhstan
  • Karachaganak - liquids and raw gas production outlook
  • NC KazMunaiGas upstream and midstream value (NPV10 at January 2023)
  • Kazakh daily oil and condensate production
  • Kharampurskoye production profile
  • Turkmenistan - offshore Block 19 location
  • Global exploration metrics (indexed to 2013)
  • Oil production trends and OPEC+ commitments (oil only, excluding condensate)
  • Kazakhstan - onshore blocks on ‘long list’ for future auctions (excludes areas set aside for NOCs)
  • KMG Kashagan entitlement production and cash flow (16.88% Kashagan stake)
  • Northern Sea Route - official throughput plan (all natural resources, including coal and metals)
  • Location of Rakushechnoye field, southwest Kazakhstan
  • Kazakh daily oil and condensate production
  • July 2022 auction
  • Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) expansion scenarios
  • CPC pipeline and Kazakh oil export infrastructure
  • Kazakh daily oil and condensate production
  • Madachagskoye discovery
  • Dragon Oil - entitlement production
  • Uzbekistan - discovered resources (new fields)
  • NC KazMunaiGas EBITDA by business segment*
  • Portovaya compressor station near Vyborg, Russia
  • Kazakhstan 2060 net zero scenario* – primary energy supply
  • Rouble's volatile ride
  • Kazakhstan gasification level by region (% of population with access to gas grid)
  • Kashagan oil production
  • Azerbaijan: SWAP exploration wells
  • Yamal-Europe pipeline route
  • Ukraine transit routes impacted by force majeure
  • Majors' Russia-related charges in Q1 2022 results
  • New payment scheme proposed by Russia
  • Kazakh daily oil and condensate production
  • Kazakhstan - onshore blocks on offer in July auction
  • Azerbaijan: SWAP exploration wells
  • LUKOIL international portfolio NAV
  • Rouble/US$ exchange rate
  • Russian oil and gas tax receipts
  • Uzbekneftegaz financial performance
  • Kazakhstan - onshore blocks on ‘long list’ for future auctions
  • GL Investment’s fields, onshore Azerbaijan
  • Kazakhstan daily oil and condensate production
  • CPC terminal exports
  • Location of Khazri discovery
  • Urals and CPC oil blends - average monthly price differential to North Sea dated
  • Russia upstream exposure: WM estimate of NAV and share of total upstream NAV in Russia
  • Russneft - top projects by value (NPV10 at start-2022, base case)
  • SOCAR’s financial position
  • BP-operated sales production in Azerbaijan
  • Rosneft - expected crude deliveries structure in 2021
  • Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok (SKV) pipeline
  • Shurtan gas hub
  • Kashagan - operator’s development plan
  • Shah Deniz and SCP ownership changes
  • Azerbaijan gas supply-demand balance
  • November 2021 auction
  • OPEC+ compliance by month
  • Russian net GHG emissions (accelerated case)
  • NC KazMunaiGas EBITDA by business segment (including KazTransGas)
  • Russia: domestic gas production
  • Uzbekistan – new discovered resources by company
  • Russian historical GHG absorption (in million tonnes of CO2 equivalent)
  • LUKOIL’s Caspian Sea portfolio outside of Russia
  • Turkey’s gas imports from Azerbaijan
  • Russian gas production
  • November 2021 auction
  • Azerbaijan: Shallow Water Absheron Peninsula exploration wells
  • Tengizchevroil expansion (FGP-WPMP) cost estimate
  • Gazprom gas production
  • Central Asian gas to China - base case outlook
  • Kashagan – operator’s development plan
  • Epsilon Development Company discoveries
  • Remaining resources in the Arctic Circle*
  • Extent of Turonian reservoirs in West Siberia
  • Shah Deniz production outlook – could Shafag Asiman provide a long-term backfill option?
  • ACQ of Shah Deniz export GSAs by destination market vs forecast production
  • April 2021 auction results
  • Block 1 production by field
  • Location of North Gydanski
  • Location of Shafag Asiman discovery
  • South Russkoye production
  • Piped gas deliveries to China
  • Karachaganak liquids production outlook (base case)
  • NC KazMunaiGas EBITDA by business segment
  • Potential impact of zero oil export duty on offshore project economics
  • Tepke block location
  • Georgian gas infrastructure
  • Gas monetisation projects in Caspian region (commissioned since 2015)
  • Top 10 global discoveries of 2020 - Russia leads the way
  • Azerbaijan oil and gas production by field
  • Chinarevskoye 2P reserve downgrades
  • April 2021 auction
  • Nord Stream 2
  • Dostlug (Serdar/Kapaz) field
  • Urengoi Achimov IV and V production outlook
  • OPEC+ oil cuts in Q1 2021
  • Vostok Oil infrastructure
  • Komsomolskoye and Tasbulat Area – net sales production
  • December 2020 auction results
  • Afghanistan upstream map

What's included

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    Russia and Caspian upstream in brief

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    Russia And Caspian Upstream In Brief Archive.pdf

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