Insight
Russia/Ukraine crisis: Recession risk and what it means for oil demand
Report summary
The combination of Russia/Ukraine conflict impacts to the global economy and persistent inflation now raises the risk of a potential recession, knocking global GDP off its post-pandemic recovery footing in 2022 and 2023. Our current short-term oil demand forecast is based on a forecast of slowed, but continued GDP growth. In contrast to our base case, this downside risk scenario assumes a recession in both the EU and the US starting later this year and slowed global GDP growth in 2023. We explore the implications for global demand including: • How would the pace of global demand recovery change • Will global liquids demand exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2023? • What regions would see the greatest impact in this scenario? • How is transport fuel demand affected in 2022-2023
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