US oil demand hits a 50 year low

The US is at the epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic, with confirmed cases at 400,000 as of 8 April. “Stay-at-home” orders are in effect in 42 states, and in states without such orders, metropolitan areas have instituted a similar policy. States and local areas have each deemed certain business sectors “essential” providing a floor for oil demand. In our recent Macro Oils monthly outlook, we expect a 3 million b/d year-on-year decline in total US oil demand in Q2 2020. Most of the demand destruction occurs in April, when we forecast US demand to fall 6 million b/d year-on-year to just 14 million b/d, a 50-year monthly low. In this Insight, we review how Genscape daily US rack data compares to our short-term demand outlook. Topics include: • Is US gasoline demand establishing a floor with near full "Stay-at-home"? • How does current US gasoline demand compare to 2019 levels? • What is the impact on diesel demand from the combination of essential transport and declining economic activity?