Report summary
China’s power and renewables markets have changed quite a lot since we published our H2 2017 long-term outlook: Stronger power demand growth, seasonal gas shortages, carbon trading market and the overhaul of the feed-in tariff structure for renewables. But one thing remains unchanged – China is serious about cleaning up the environment and environmental policies are reshaping its energy supply options. This grand energy transition offers more opportunities for clean fuels such as gas and renewables, while coal is set to face more downward pressure. In this long-term outlook, we extend our base case view from 2035 to 2040. This enables us to discuss the impact of electric vehicles and also how renewables integrated with energy storage could potentially challenge and limit growth for gas.
Table of contents
-
Executive summary
- China's power demand boosted by revitalised industries, but uncertainty remains
- Gas-fired power to face increasing pressure from renewables plus energy storage
- Coal-fired capacity set to decline longer term
- New policy changes to help renewables penetrate higher in the energy mix
- Power liberalisation making progress but still have long way to go
-
Key data tables
- China power market balance
- Key facts and changes
- Economic outlook
-
Policy and regulation
- Environmental and energy policies
-
Carbon trading market
- Power market reform
-
Incremental distribution grid reform
- Direct power sales
- Bidding-based market transaction
-
Market structure
- Regional grids
- Generation
- Demand
-
Supply
-
Coal
- Gas
- Hydro: run-of-river and reservoir
- Hydro: pumped storage
- Nuclear
- Energy Storage
- Renewables: wind
- Renewable generation
- Total power generation
- Reserve margin
-
Coal
-
Infrastructure
-
Power Infrastructure
-
Power transmission
- China inter-regional key power transmission infrastructure by 2020
-
Power flows
- Power flows from major exporters
- Power flows into major importers
-
Power transmission
-
Power Infrastructure
-
Costs
-
Long-run marginal cost
- Long-run marginal cost by technology in China and corresponding on-grid tariffs by 2020
- On-grid tariffs
- Coal-power pricing indexation mechanism
-
Gas-power pricing indexation mechanism
- Jiangsu formula:
- Shanghai formula:
-
Long-run marginal cost
- Risks and uncertainties
Tables and charts
This report includes 37 images and tables including:
- Economic Indicators
- Forecast power demand vs. GDP
- Forecast power demand vs. elasticity
- Forecast power demand by region
- Forecast power demand by sector
- EV power consumption by sector
- EV power consumption stock
- 2017 installed capacity by region
- 2017 installed capacity by fuel
- China key power demand uncertainties
- China key power supply uncertainties
- Executive summary: Table 1
- Executive summary: Table 4
- Key changes to power analysis from H2 2017 publication
- Pollutant discharge standards for coal-fired plants
- Carbon emission under different prices
- Major players in China's power generation market 2017 (MW)
- Top 7 power utilities' capacity by fuel type in 2017
- Installed capacity by fuel 2010-2040
- Installed capacity by region 2010-2040
- Solar capacity by region
- Wind capacity by region
- Power generation by fuel
- Power generation by region
- Installed capacity grid reserve margin
- De-rated grid reserve margin with transmissions
- Incremental capacity by fuel
- Power plant investment by fuel
- Historical on-grid tariff by fuel
- Historical on-grid tariff by region
- Executive summary: Table 2
- China gas demand
- Gas demand in power by region
- Costs: Image 1
- Infrastructure: Image 1
- Infrastructure: Image 2
- Infrastructure: Image 3
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Market Report
Latin America levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) 2023
This report provides an analysis and outlook to 2050 for power technology and generation cost trends in Latin America.
$5,990
Commodity Market Report
Global thermal short-term outlook April 2024
Volatility increasing as shoulder-season demand competes with supply issues including Russia sanctions and the Baltimore bridge collapse.
$5,000
Insight
Australia drafts technology roadmap to lower emissions but implementation is key
A market mechanism is essential to accelerate the transition
$1,050
