Commodity Market Report
China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H1 2018
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
China’s power and renewables markets have changed quite a lot since we published our H2 2017 long-term outlook: Stronger power demand growth, seasonal gas shortages, carbon trading market and the overhaul of the feed-in tariff structure for renewables. But one thing remains unchanged – China is serious about cleaning up the environment and environmental policies are reshaping its energy supply options. This grand energy transition offers more opportunities for clean fuels such as gas and renewables, while coal is set to face more downward pressure. In this long-term outlook, we extend our base case view from 2035 to 2040. This enables us to discuss the impact of electric vehicles and also how renewables integrated with energy storage could potentially challenge and limit growth for gas.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- China's power demand boosted by revitalised industries, but uncertainty remains
- Gas-fired power to face increasing pressure from renewables plus energy storage
- Coal-fired capacity set to decline longer term
- New policy changes to help renewables penetrate higher in the energy mix
- Power liberalisation making progress but still have long way to go
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Key data tables
- China power market balance
- Key facts and changes
- Economic outlook
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Policy and regulation
- Environmental and energy policies
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Carbon trading market
- Power market reform
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Incremental distribution grid reform
- Direct power sales
- Bidding-based market transaction
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Market structure
- Regional grids
- Generation
- Demand
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Supply
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Coal
- Gas
- Hydro: run-of-river and reservoir
- Hydro: pumped storage
- Nuclear
- Energy Storage
- Renewables: wind
- Renewable generation
- Total power generation
- 2 more item(s)...
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Coal
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Infrastructure
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Power Infrastructure
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Power transmission
- China inter-regional key power transmission infrastructure by 2020
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Power flows
- Power flows from major exporters
- Power flows into major importers
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Power transmission
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Power Infrastructure
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Costs
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Long-run marginal cost
- Long-run marginal cost by technology in China and corresponding on-grid tariffs by 2020
- On-grid tariffs
- Coal-power pricing indexation mechanism
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Gas-power pricing indexation mechanism
- Jiangsu formula:
- Shanghai formula:
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Long-run marginal cost
- Risks and uncertainties
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Economic IndicatorsForecast power demand vs. GDPForecast power demand vs. elasticity
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Forecast power demand by regionForecast power demand by sectorEV power consumption by sectorEV power consumption stock2017 installed capacity by region2017 installed capacity by fuelChina key power demand uncertaintiesChina key power supply uncertaintiesExecutive summary: Table 1
- 25 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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