China power and renewable markets long-term outlook H2 2018 Report

Commodity Market Report 28 December 2018

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Report summary

China’s power and renewables space never lacks dynamism. Year-to-date power demand growth until November posted a five-year high but future growth is clouded by the US-China trade row. The government has been keen to lower power tariffs and speed up market liberalisation. Gas-fired power could see more constraints due to gas supply tightness, and captive coal-fired power plants will have to pay more fees to become eligible power market players. Pricing of renewables is moving from a feed-in tariff system to competitive auctions. But one thing remains unchanged – China is serious about energy transition, which offers more opportunities for clean fuels, while coal is set to face more downward pressure. In this report, we have enriched our offerings by adding GDP sensitivity analysis. This enables you to explore how inter-fuel competition will play out in response to power demand profiles changes (as a result of different GDP assumptions).

Power demand reaches five-year high but next year looks uncertain
Gas-fired power to feel short-term pain
Coal-fired captive power plants face more headwinds
New policies to boost renewables but challenges remain
NDRC urges local governments to lower power tariffs
Power sector reforms continue but spot-trading pilots will be delayed until mid-2019
State-owned enterprise reform fuels Huadian-Datang merger proposal
- China power available capacity