Commodity Market Report

Coronavirus will disrupt ERCOT power markets for at least 18 months: ERCOT power and renewables March 2020 STO

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01 April 2020

Coronavirus will disrupt ERCOT power markets for at least 18 months: ERCOT power and renewables March 2020 STO

Report summary

The direct impact to the US economy and power markets from the coronavirus has become increasingly dramatic over the past month, and we project significant pullbacks in the larger North American economy and corresponding impacts to demand for power, with our baseline view calling for a sharp recession over the next several quarters. Should stimulus not help as much as anticipated, the recovery time could be longer.

Table of contents

  • North American power markets are in unchartered territory, with events evolving quickly, and assumptions being constantly revised.
  • Our baseline view yields lower power demand and power prices across North American power markets.
  • Demand destruction
  • The realized path of GDP may be worse despite the fiscal and monetary stimulus, as our more severe scenario has losses running through 2023.
  • Commercial, industrial and transportation electricity demand curtailment will result from the economic downturn.
  • Regional drivers will have cumulative impacts to demand
    • Wind
    • Solar

Tables and charts

This report includes 1 images and tables including:

  • Figure 1: US GDP Growth

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Coronavirus will disrupt North America power markets for at least 18 months North America power and renewables March 2020 STO.pdf

    PDF 902.05 KB

  • Document

    Short Term Outlook Baseline_Delivered_Fuel_Prices_Nominal_ERCOT_3_30_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 44.60 KB

  • Document

    Short Term Outlook Baseline_Delivered_Fuel_Prices_Real_ERCOT_3_30_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 44.62 KB

  • Document

    Short Term Outlook Baseline_Load_Forecast_ERCOT_3_30_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 2.42 MB

  • Document

    Short Term Outlook Baseline_Prices_Sparks_IHR_Darks_Nominal_ERCOT_3_30_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 725.18 KB

  • Document

    Short Term Outlook Baseline_Prices_Sparks_IHR_Darks_Real_ERCOT_3_30_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 2.42 MB

  • Document

    Short Term Outlook Baseline_Short Term_Fundamentals_ERCOT_3_30_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 194.67 KB

  • Document

    Short Term Outlook Prolonged Recovery_Delivered_Fuel_Prices_Nominal_ERCOT_3_30_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 44.64 KB

  • Document

    Short Term Outlook Prolonged Recovery_Delivered_Fuel_Prices_Real_ERCOT_3_30_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 44.67 KB

  • Document

    Short Term Outlook Prolonged Recovery_Load_Forecast_ERCOT_3_30_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 2.42 MB

  • Document

    Short Term Outlook Prolonged Recovery_Prices_Sparks_IHR_Darks_Nominal_ERCOT_3_30_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 725.24 KB

  • Document

    Short Term Outlook Prolonged Recovery_Prices_Sparks_IHR_Darks_Real_ERCOT_3_30_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 2.43 MB

  • Document

    Short Term Outlook Prolonged Recovery_Short_Term_Fundamentals_ERCOT_3_30_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 194.67 KB

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