Commodity market report

Europe power markets long-term outlook H1 2015

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Report summary

The continuing pursuit of environmental targets presents a mounting challenge to Europe s power markets and the companies operating in them. With power demand suffering from the prolonged after effects of economic recession and strong growth in incentive driven renewable supplies wholesale power prices are experiencing a period of significant weakness and are well below the level required to incentivise investments in conventional plant.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Europe Power H1 2015.xls

    XLS 4.35 MB

  • Document

    Europe power markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    PDF 436.94 KB

  • Document

    Europe power markets long-term outlook H1 2015

    ZIP 1.10 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 118.30 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 89.90 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 199.15 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 100.83 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 106.42 KB

Table of contents

    • Pollutant control and renewables reduce the role of coal
    • Power supply from gas to peak in the mid-2020s
    • Renewable supply to the fore
    • The challenges of de-carbonising power supply
    • Slow recovery and continued weak demand in mature markets
    • Industrial transition provides contrasting growth prospects
    • Residential and commercial demand offset by efficiency improvements
      • Low carbon growth puts pressure on conventional technologies
      • Rising costs lead a reassessment of support measures
    • Post-2020 policy targets guide investment
    • Margins weaken as conventional capacity is withdrawn
      • Gas replaces lost output from coal, oil and nuclear
      • Substantial decarbonisation as renewable growth continues
      • Coal's decline gathers pace as capacity retirements mount
    • Fuel & emissions cost uncertainty
    • Expansion of nuclear new-build
    • Renewable power costs and support – drivers or barriers to growth?

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:

Images

  • European power supply by source
  • Renewable electricity supply and targets
  • Electricity demand
  • Break-even costs of new-build technologies (LRMC)
  • Long-run economics of gas and coal generators – fuel and emissions cost parity
  • Growth in renewable generation capacity and share of total supply
  • Cost of renewable support per unit of total power supply (2012)
  • Power supply by source
  • Carbon intensity of power supply (ETS markets only)
  • Power supply - change between forecasts

Tables

  • Capacity market and strategic reserve arrangements in European power markets

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