Europe power markets long-term outlook H2 2019

Relative movements in fuel prices and higher carbon costs had a major impact on the economics of conventional thermal generators in 2019, reordering the cost curve of supply in favour of gas. Gas' pivotal role in the supply mix will continue through the 2020s as coal and nuclear decline, before being squeezed by renewables as the pressure to meet net-zero targets intensifies. We expect the renewable share of EU-28 power supply to rise from around 36% in 2019 to 65% by 2040. This report presents our long-term outlook for European power to 2040 – including analysis of regional trends, overviews of annual power prices in key markets and country-level supply-demand balances.