Location, location, location: Why ‘where’ beat ‘what’ in the UK’s record‑breaking AR7 for onshore renewables

We analyse the results of the UK's AR7 Pot 1 auction for onshore wind and solar PV. Total awarded capacity increased by 31% – however, this came at a cost. Having accounted for revenue upside resulting from the extension of the CfD contract to 20 years, the strike price of wind increased by 9% compared to AR6, while the strike price for solar PV was flat. This report examines why the ring-fenced budget for onshore wind was not spent in full, and probes the impact of project size and location on the results. Looking ahead to AR8, we consider what, if anything, is left for the government to do on auction design for these technologies to meet their 2030 targets. It is our view that the most impactful change would be indirect action: improving the business case for onshore wind and solar PV through grid connections reform.