Commodity Market Report
Mexico gas, power, and renewables 10-year investment horizon outlook 2025
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Report summary
In 2025, Mexico's gas and power markets enter a period of structural rebalancing marked by shifting supply and demand dynamics. Gas demand growth slows to just 0.3% CAGR through 2035, constrained by persistent economic weakness that drives industrial consumption 200 mmcfd below previous expectations. LNG exports, once viewed as a primary growth engine, now face sustained volatility as Altamira confronts utilisation challenges. On the supply side, a historic shift emerges. Pemex commits US$327 million to its first unconventional resource development program, targeting 500 mmcfd by 2030. Combined with Lakach's return, expanding domestic production fundamentally alters import dynamics. South Texas flows decline over 40% to 2.9 bcfd by 2035 as Gulf Coast supply displaces US imports. Meanwhile, PLADESE regulations revitalise the power sector, introducing binding battery storage mandates that reshape capacity expansion.
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