Commodity Market Report
Mexico gas, power, and renewables investment horizon outlook to 2032
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
After a wild bull run in 2021, Henry Hub normalizes nearly US$3/mmBtu beyond this winter. However, we expect it to be higher by 6.8% than our previous forecast between 2022 and 2032. The latter reflects over Location Marginal Prices, pressuring them to the upside in the short-term and shaping the power market accordingly. On the other hand, the president’s new intent to modify the regulation in the energy sector through a constitutional amendment brings up an additional source of uncertainty for private participants. Furthermore, the lack of permitting for renewable projects has already decreased the rapid growth level from previous years, while the severity of the intended modifications will continue to affect private investors’ confidence in the near and middle term.
Table of contents
- Investment horizon outlook
- Higher gas export prices take a toll on the domestic market
- Slower economic recovery to diminish gas demand
- Energy loads continue to recover after the first coronavirus outbreak, surpassing 2019 and 2020 levels
- Mexico’s proposed constitutional amendment threatens to further jeopardize private renewable growth in the country
Tables and charts
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Mexico energy market at a glance
What's included
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