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Are we all scrubbed up and ready to go? Updated analysis of the IMO 2020 marine fuel sulphur changes

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It’s not long until the IMO 2020 fuel regulation changes come into force on 1 January 2020.

Get our latest IMO 2020 insight for the most up to date information on the impacts of the marine fuel sulphur changes.

Key developments in this report include:

  • Our latest forecasts for bunker fuel prices and crude differentials, consistent with our H1 2019 Brent price forecasts
  • More detailed analysis of availability and quality of VLSFO by region, and updated numbers for the consumption of scrubbed HSFO
  • Additional work on the impact of the IMO regulations on the evolution of the global crude slate, refinery investments and upgrading capacity.

15 August 2019

Are we all scrubbed up and ready to go? Updated analysis of the IMO 2020 marine fuel sulphur changes

Report summary

In a few months time, IMO regulations on the quality of marine bunker fuel will have a major impact on the mix of fuel types consumed by the shipping sector from 2020 onwards. This insight summarises our latest view on the impact of this fuel specification change. The insight provides our latest forecasts for bunker fuel prices and crude differentials consistent with our H1 2019 Brent price forecast and global refined product imbalances. We highlight recent developments in terms of scrubber investments and our latest assessment of the availability of VLSFO and middle distillate fuels. We also present further work in relation to crude slate evolution, refinery investments and upgrading capacity.

Table of Contents

  1. Current market for marine fuels
  2. Implementation of the IMO global sulphur limit
  3. Options for regulatory compliance
  4. Outlook for global marine fuel demand
  5. Resolving the imbalances
  6. Impact on fuel prices, refining margins and crude differentials
  7. Implications from the “full compliance” scenario
  8. Summary

Tables and Charts

This report includes 33 tables and charts, including:

  1. Global marine fuel market by type, 2000 – 2018
  2. Share of global marine fuels by fuel type, 2018
  3. Regional growth in marine fuels, 2000 – 2018
  4. Share of global marine fuels by region, 2018
  5. Timeline for enforcement of MARPOL Annex VI SOx emission limits
  6. Assumed regulatory compliance by region, 2020 

Table of contents

  • No table of contents specified

Tables and charts

No table or charts specified

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    IMO 2020 - Are we all scrubbed up and ready to go August 2019.pdf

    PDF 2.65 MB

  • Document

    IMO 2020 data and charts_August2019.xls

    XLS 603.00 KB

  • Document

    Are we all scrubbed up and ready to go? Updated analysis of the IMO 2020 marine fuel sulphur changes

    ZIP 2.42 MB

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