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Sailing away from fuel oil - updated analysis of the IMO 2020 marine fuel sulphur changes

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09 November 2018

Sailing away from fuel oil - updated analysis of the IMO 2020 marine fuel sulphur changes

Report summary

The forthcoming change in IMO regulations on the quality of marine bunker fuel impacts the mix of fuel types consumed by the shipping sector in 2020. This insight summarises our latest view on the impact of this fuel specification change, providing an update on the article published in April 2018. The insight provides our latest forecasts for bunker fuel prices and crude differentials consistent with our H1 2018 Brent price forecast and global refined product imbalances. We highlight recent developments in terms of scrubber and LNG investments and our latest assessment of the availability of VLSFO and middle distillate fuels. We also present further work in relation to crude slate evolution, refinery investments and upgrading capacity. The analysis also assesses regional fuel oil balances and potential markets for displaced fuel oil in regional power markets.

Table of contents

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Tables and charts

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What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    IMO 2020 Sailing away from fuel oil_Oct2018.pdf

    PDF 2.50 MB

  • Document

    IMO 2020 data and charts_Oct2018.xls

    XLS 467.00 KB

  • Document

    Sailing away from fuel oil - updated analysis of the IMO 2020 marine fuel sulphur changes

    ZIP 2.27 MB

Why buy this report?

Our latest IMO 2020 insight further develops our outlook on the impacts of the marine fuel sulphur changes. Key developments in this report include:

  • More granular analysis of the uptake of sulphur scrubbers in the global shipping fleet, assessing the rate of penetration by vessel type up to 2025
  • More detailed analysis of ULSFO supply availability from pure streams and VGO blending, highlighting increased availability in the African and Russian markets
  • Additional work on ULSFO pricing, identifying the key price setting drivers for this new fuel specification
  • To download and view a sample file click here
 

Alan Gelder, VP Refining, Chemicals & Oil Markets explores how refiners can benefit from this legislation, as well as their potential hurdles.