Insight
Corporate downstream benchmarking 2025-2026, part 2: refining, chemicals and retail
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Downstream remains a critical value anchor, accounting for roughly 20% of the peer group's total corporate value and stabilizing cash flows, yet strategies are sharply diverging as upstream continues to dominate capital allocation. While National Oil Companies (NOCs) are aggressively expanding capacity to secure future market share, Majors are adhering to strict capital discipline, prioritizing shareholder returns and divesting non-core assets to high-grade their portfolios. The sector currently faces a dual-speed reality where refining serves as the primary cash engine through 2030, while the petrochemicals market navigates a slower, U-shaped recovery due to significant oversupply before becoming the long-term earnings driver. Ultimately, companies must rigorously assess the distinct risk-reward profiles of refining, chemicals, and retail to build resilient portfolios capable of withstanding long-term demand uncertainty and the energy transition.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Refining the future: US-Saudi 2025 agreements accelerate refining and chemical integration
US-Saudi 2025 deals: US$600 billion investment reshapes oil and chemicals markets, accelerating refining and chemical integration.
$900
Insight
Oil and refining impact of US reciprocal tariffs
OPEC+ decisions and the supply reaction will also drive prices and global refining margins through crude oil light/heavy price differentials
$1,350
Insight
Global refinery closure threat update 2025
Which assets are most at risk of closure?
$2,000
