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Corporate downstream benchmarking 2025-2026, part 2: refining, chemicals and retail
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Report summary
Downstream remains a critical value anchor, accounting for roughly 20% of the peer group's total corporate value and stabilizing cash flows, yet strategies are sharply diverging as upstream continues to dominate capital allocation. While National Oil Companies (NOCs) are aggressively expanding capacity to secure future market share, Majors are adhering to strict capital discipline, prioritizing shareholder returns and divesting non-core assets to high-grade their portfolios. The sector currently faces a dual-speed reality where refining serves as the primary cash engine through 2030, while the petrochemicals market navigates a slower, U-shaped recovery due to significant oversupply before becoming the long-term earnings driver. Ultimately, companies must rigorously assess the distinct risk-reward profiles of refining, chemicals, and retail to build resilient portfolios capable of withstanding long-term demand uncertainty and the energy transition.
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