Insight
Downstream oil in brief: Germany's climate change dilemma, what happens if the Rhine dries up?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Following our previous insight covering the Rhine water level crisis at end 2018, this month we revisit the Rhine following a period of low water in July. In this article we look both at the short-term disruption to freight rates and inland fuel prices, as well as exploring the longer-term implications for those reliant on the Rhine as a transport route. We also looks at how European refining and marketing margins have been performing over the past month.
Table of contents
- Europe's most important river: the role of the Rhine in oil product trade flows
- Why Rhine water levels matter: the impact on freight rates and inland fuel prices
- Lower for longer: what are the alternative transport options if the Rhine becomes structurally shallower?
- Potential winners and losers: who should be most concerned?
- In conclusion
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Margins
- Refining margins:
- Retail margins: pump prices lag a wholesale price collapse, as margins surge
- Germany and Switzerland: pump prices set to rise as barge loading restrictions imposed
- Client feedback
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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The Rhine river and Germany's hinterland refining systemA critical relationship: Rhine water levels and freight ratesSeasonal trends in freight rates vs water levels
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Rhine water levels long term range and forecastNWE refining marginsMed refining marginsMED gasoline/gasoil crack spreadsNWE gasoline/gasoil crack spreadsAverage weighted gross retail marginsGermany: gasoline gross retail fuel marginSwitzerland: gasoline gross retail fuel marginGermany: diesel gross retail fuel margin
- 1 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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