EU Methane Emissions Regulation – Analysis of Market Impacts

What happens when energy security collides with climate regulation? Our new study, commissioned by IOGP Europe and Concawe, reveals the potential market impacts of the EU Methane Emissions Regulation on Europe's oil and gas supply. The findings are striking: By 2027, approximately 43% of natural gas and 87% of crude oil imported by the EU in 2024 could be non-compliant under current regulation requirements. EU gas prices could climb to record highs and refinery throughput could collapse by around 50% between 2027 and 2030. Gasoline and diesel prices could rise by 24% and 16% respectively. Two scenarios modelled: We examined enforcement as written versus an Adaptive Scenario with greater flexibility in granting country-level equivalence. Even with flexibility, material risks remain. Gas prices could reach US$19/mmbtu – more than twice our Base Case forecast. The last thing Europe needs is a self-inflicted energy supply shock.