Global products market weekly: Refining margins gains as Middle East tensions and unplanned turnarounds supports cracks

The oil market firmed on heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as the US and UK continued to launch strikes against the Houthis sites to deter the latter from attacks on commercial ships coupled with the announcement of supply stimulus from China. However, rise in supply from Libya as Sharara oil fields started production post three weeks of protest capped further increase in oil prices until the news of the strong US Q4 GDP growth and draw in US crude inventories emerged later in the week. North Sea Dated crude’s weekly average rose by US$2.37/bbl, in the week ended 26 January. Our ex-RVO global composite refining margin increased by US$0.70/bbl to US$7.07/bbl, owing to strength in gasoline cracks amid unplanned maintenance. Weekly margins were at US$2.30/bbl above the five-year historical average for the same week (excluding 2022).​