Insight
IMO 2020 – the driver of outperformance of the Brazilian refining system
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Report summary
2020 has proven to be a year of increasing pressure on global refining margins as demand dropped sharply due to the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the implementation of IMO sulphur limits on bunker fuel triggered a fast-paced recovery in crude runs in Brazil. The VLSFO price surge supported Petrobras' refining output, pushing fuel oil exports to historic highs. In this insight, we analyse the "how" behind the increase in Brazilian crude runs and answer the following questions: How much VLSFO is Brazil producing, and by which refining assets? How does the product output look like for the assets for sale versus the assets that Petrobras will continue to operate? What was the Net Cash Margin of the Brazilian refineries in 2019 and 2020?
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