IMO 2020 Updated analysis of the marine fuel sulphur changes

The change in IMO regulations on the quality of marine bunker fuel impacts the mix of fuel types consumed by the shipping sector in 2020. This insight summarises our latest view on the impact of this change, providing an update on the article published in August 2017. We have made a downward revision to our scrubber penetration rate in 2020, although we still expect a ramp up in the number of scrubbers installed post-2020, particularly in the new build market. Our base-case outlook also assumes higher compliance and higher availability of ULSFO in 2020, although many uncertainties remain surrounding the implementation path for the global sulphur cap. The insight provides our latest forecasts for bunker fuel prices and crude differentials consistent with our H2 2017 Brent price forecast and global refined product imbalances. We also present further work in relation to the pricing and availability of ULSFO, assessing supply from pure ULSFO streams as well as blending with VGO.