IMO 2050 Outlook for global marine fuels, July 2025

This insight presents our latest base case outlook for marine fuels to 2050 and explores some of the emerging issues as the International Maritime Organisation seeks to decarbonise international shipping. Oil bunkers is expected to peak by the mid-2020s at just under 5.3 million b/d. Marine LNG is the main source of market growth during the next decade, displacing 0.4 million b/d of oil bunkers by 2030. The global marine fuel market is expected to start declining in the early 2030s as improving fuel efficiency erodes demand despite rising global trade. Growth in marine LNG then slows post-2040 as synthetic e-fuels become more widespread, supported by the increasing availability of green hydrogen capacity.