Market inefficiencies from the Russia Ukraine War

This briefing presents a summary of a scenario run using Wood Mackenzie’s proprietary Refinery Supply Model, in which Europe implements a ban on all imports of Russian crude and oil products. We analyze global crude and product trade as well as European refining impacts in detail, with the aim of understanding how the market optimally resolves given these new constraints. We aim to answer key questions around how Europe fills its crude slate and product needs, impact to refining margins, and the ultimate destination of Russian exports.