Nigeria's downstream comeback - a threat to European refiners?

Despite nearly 450,000 b/d of domestic refining capacity, poor utilisation has left Nigeria reliant on imports to satisfy its gasoline-dominant demand. The majority of gasoline imports are sourced from North-West Europe, making Nigeria a key outlet for European gasoline surplus. Along with the start-up of the 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery, NNPC's rehabilitation program looks to bring its state-owned refineries online by 2025. This Insight utilises Wood Mackenzie's Refinery Supply Model to explore how European refiners would be affected and how gasoline trade flows would re-balance in a world where Nigeria is self-sufficient in refined products.