Oil products price forecast mid-month update February 2021

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for February 2021 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month. These changes reflect recent data releases and major market developments since our last update on 1 February. For this mid-month publication, we have updated our Brent price outlook to reflect commitments made at the 3 February OPEC+ meeting. Our monthly global composite refining margin rose US$0.23/bbl in 1H February to US$1.68/bbl. Refinery run rates are on the increase, while stagnant demand for oil products lags the higher production. Light product cracks fell in all regions, but weaker crude differentials, particularly for Urals, offset the overall decline and benefiting refineries with access to sour crudes, particularly in the Mediterranean. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will published on March 1 2021.