Oil products price forecast mid-month update February 2022

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for February 2022 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update on 1 February. For this mid-month update, we have revised our February monthly Brent price forecast to align with our Macro Oils Service short-term February outlook. Given the current geopolitical tension over Russia-Ukraine, low distillate and crude stock levels, and strong backwardation we have revised our forecast for Brent upward. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin increased in the first half of February as gasoline and distillate cracks strengthened. Atlantic basin gasoline cracks remain strong given strong transatlantic flows and exports to Africa. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will published on 1 March 2022.