Commodity Market Report
Oil products price forecast mid-month update March 2023
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for March 2023 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update on 2 March. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite was marginally higher than the February month average. Global distillate cracks have remained rangebound as weaker seasonal demand has offset lower refinery supply as maintenance season in the US and Europe ramps up. The regrade value has narrowed sharply in Europe and Asia, lowering jet cracks by over US$5/bbl compared to our monthly update. Atlantic basin product cracks remain highly susceptible to spikes in the coming weeks as French refinery workers' strikes continue with no clear resolution or fixed end date. Any escalation in the outages adds upside risks to margins. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will be published on 3 April 2023.
Table of contents
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Global margins poised for Q2 recovery, French refinery strike escalation adds upside risk
- Brent Price Outlook
- Saudi OSP outlook
- Key Changes to our prices and margins view
- Crude price and differential analysis
- Regional refining margin analysis
Tables and charts
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What's included
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