Oil products price forecast mid-month update November 2023

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for November 2023 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin gained by US$1.09/bbl to US$5.52/bbl as rebounding gasoline cracks alongside strengthening jet and fuel oil cracks offset weakness in diesel. As refiners return from maintenance this month, we forecast diesel cracks to have already peaked and now look for them to slide towards the end of the year, with gasoline remaining near current floor levels. We do see potential upside for jet cracks, as early signs point to very strong US holiday travel demand. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will be published on 1 December 2023.