Oil products price forecast mid-month update October 2022

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for October 2022 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update on 3 October. For this mid-month update, we have revised our monthly Brent price forecast to align with our Macro Oils Service short-term October outlook. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin rose in the first half of October. Western hemisphere diesel/gasoil balances tightened further on the back of falling production, particularly in Europe due to the impact of the French refinery workers' strikes, and the high levels of seasonal maintenance. This has heightened fears that Atlantic basin middle distillate inventories will remain tight throughout the winter and into February when the EU embargo on Russian oil product imports begins. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will published on 1 November 2022.