Commodity Market Report
Oil products price forecast mid-month update October 2023
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for October 2023 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update. Global refining margins have continued to weaken through the first few weeks of October, as gasoline cracks have crashed as Atlantic basin fundamentals have lengthened. HSFO cracks have followed suit, with Hydroskimming margins in Asia and Europe now negative. Distillate cracks have bucked the downward trend, with cracks broadly matching movements in crude pricing as global balances remain tight. Diesel cracks will continue to lead refining margins over the next several months, with Europe needing to price higher to re-open the E-W spread as seasonal maintenance limits exports to Europe, particularly from the Middle East and Asia. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will be published on 1 November 2023.
Table of contents
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Refining margins hit five-month lows on gasoline weakness
- Brent Price Outlook
- Saudi Aramco OSPs
- Key Changes to our prices and margins view
- Crude price and differential analysis
- Regional refining margin analysis
Tables and charts
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What's included
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